GCAS is developing an intelligent vulnerability analysis tool for the Army Research Laboratories to characterizing the failure of electronic equipment subjected to mechanical shock from blast waves created by conventional weapons.

GCAS is currently under contract with the US Army Research Laboratory for the development of an Equipment Shock Expert Tool (ESET). ESET will predict the fragility of electronic equipment mounted on a military vehicle that is subject to a shock wave generated by a blast. The proposed architecture is based on Bayesian Network and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques for estimating the likelihood of the equipment failure. A set of BNs is used to establish the likelihood of failure of the various electronic components. In order to inform the BNs, a Rule-based Production System analyzes the equipment under investigation and extracts relevant features. The PRA analysis is then used to compound the results coming from the various BNs and to compute the overall equipment fragility. This probabilistic reasoning approach will be capable of estimating the fragility in the presence of either partial or complete information about the equipment. By using ESET, it is expected that a large knowledge base of equipment fragility profiles will be generated. ESET will also feature advanced modules, including a Knowledge Acquisition Facility, an Explanation Facility and an Advisory System. These modules will help the analyst in improving the knowledge base and reasoning system, understanding the reasons behind the equipment’s predicted fragility and improving the equipment’s design. Upon successful completion of the project, these modules will be fundamental to increase the commercialization of the product. This will also benefit from the growing interest in the failure analysis of electronic equipment subject to shock and vibration.